Informa Telecoms & Media’s ‘HSDPA Status Update’ says that HSDPA will only become a mass market reality in 2006, despite many operators announcing plans to introduce HSDPA during the current year. The report says that these launches, if they do occur, will be addressing a datacard only market.

“After having to repeatedly delay the full commercial launch of their WCDMA networks in 2003 and 2004 due to a shortage of handsets, these same operators are going to endure an exact repeat of the situation when it comes to HSDPA”, said John Everington, senior research analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. “Despite early predictions from Samsung, LG and NEC of handsets becoming available from the end of 2005, HSDPA-enabled handsets are only likely to appear commercially in large volumes from mid-2006 onwards, forcing operators to limit their launches to datacard users in the initial stages.”

The first operator to bring HSDPA to the market is almost certain to be Cingular Wireless in the US, which plans a launch in late 2005. NTT DoCoMo, which was expected to launch this year, has announced a delay until the second half of 2006. UK operator O2 is to trial HSDPA in its test network on the Isle of Man.

At the 3GSM World Congress in February, HSDPA was the hot topic, with major vendors vying to become the first to bring the technology to market. Much was made of the ease with which HSDPA could be introduced, with only a straightforward software upgrade needed in most cases. If the Informa report is accurate it seems likely that, once again, the mobile industry has shot itself in the foot by over-hyping a new technological advance.
Ian Channing