HSDPA was the big buzz at this year’s 3GSM World Congress and the industry is confidently predicting that operators will be deploying the technology by the end of 2005. The new technology finally realises the promise of 3G by enabling data download speeds comparable to fixed line broadband solutions such as ADSL. HSDPA has a theoretical peak data throughput rate of 14.4Mbits/s but the industry, perhaps learning from past over-hyping, is saying that 1Mbits/s plus will be the real world deliverable. Even at these speeds HSDPA will enable a whole raft of new applications and services, and more significantly will enhance the user experience.

The need to have compelling applications and services has always been at the forefront of operator strategies. Exploiting the higher data download capability of HSDPA to drive these new applications will be key to creating new revenue streams. Mike Short, international director of O2, is heartened by the way in which this sector is moving. "There are now over 700 application developers in the 2.5/3G space in the UK alone. That support in the application arena will help us to have a wide range of applications that will take us well beyond where we are today".

The significant improvements in latency provided by HSDPA will also open up new opportunities. Comparing HSDPA with WCDMA latency is reduced from around 100 milliseconds, to less than 65 milliseconds. "HSDPA is going to deliver a latency that is very compelling", says Alan Pritchard, vice president GSM/UMTS marketing at Nortel. Reduced latency will lead to a significant improvement in real time services and will have an impact in applications such as interactive gaming and push to talk (PTT).

For Derek Evans, vice president and managing director EMEA for Sierra Wireless, HSDPA is a win-win scenario. "The user experience is going to improve, the supporting vendors, whether they be handset makers, application developers or content providers, are going to benefit, and the operators are going to get improved efficiencies in the deployment of their networks".

My kingdom for a handset?
Historically in the mobile arena, the barrier to the widespread take-up of new technologies has always been the availability of terminals. HSDPA looks like being no exception. Although operators are planning HSDPA deployments in the current year, HSDPA-enabled handsets are not due until 2006 at the earliest. Meanwhile the market, as Derek Evans explains, will be driven by other devices. "From a form factor viewpoint certainly PC cards look like they will be in the market first. There are four or five companies that will produce HSDPA cards during the second half of this year. The natural evolution of this is to go to the mini express card (an evolution of the PCMCIA card) embedded in notebook computers, and we will see this in the first half of 2006. 2008 will see dramatic growth in mini express cards but we still see longevity in PC cards out another three years. With regard to handsets we expect to see the first HSDPA handsets with Wi-Fi and PTT in the first half of 2006".

Although HSDPA will deliver higher data throughput speeds than have been previously been available, the mobile industry seems to be trying not to get into the bragging wars over data speeds that created the high expectations of the past. Alan Hadden, chairman of the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) accepts that there have been problems. "It is not useful to focus on data rates, it is useful to focus on what users will get, what are the applications? If there has been a disconnect it has probably been between what were the real capabilities, what the market was ready to accept and pay for and what the operators were in a position to deliver".

Playing catch-up with wireline
Rising customer expectations are a major issue which the industry will have to address. With the fixed line broadband experience now common to increasing numbers of users both in the UK and across Western Europe, customers are likely to demand similar levels of performance and data throughput capabilities on their mobiles. At present, if HSDPA does fulfil its promises, it will offer similar speeds to today’s typical domestic ADSL connection. However, ADSL and similar technologies are moving ahead and will soon be delivering data speeds far in excess of what current mobile technology can offer. In parallel with the upward curve of fixed line data speeds is a commensurate fall in tariffs; a 1Mbits/s connection in the UK now costs around £20 a month. Even with HSDPA mobile operators will find it hard to match such tariffs. As ever, the trade-off is mobility: if the user is happy that his applications and services are being delivered at reasonable data speeds wherever he is then he is probably prepared to accept the cost penalty. However, for this trade-off to work, operators will need to deliver a reliable and ubiquitous service-always a difficult goal to achieve given the vagaries of wireless communications.

But do they really want it?
It could be argued that HSDPA is being introduced rather more quickly than originally planned in order to deliver the data speeds that were supposed to come with 3G WCDMA. Although there are currently more than 24mn 3G users worldwide, anecdotal evidence suggests that the majority are not utilising data services to any great extend. Whether data speeds are a factor in this or whether the industry has simply not brought enough compelling applications and services to the 3G market is unclear. What is clear is that if HSDPA does deliver as promised - and the technology enables new applications and services - then it will be possible to see whether customers really do want to have mobile services other than voice and simple messaging.
Ian Channing