The global mobile market is forecast to pass 2bn subs this year and be approaching 3bn by the end of 2010 - according to the latest edition of the Global Mobile Forecasts to 2010 report. Overall market growth was boosted in 2004, with 91mn more new customers during the year than there were in 2003. Although the annual growth rate is forecast to fall into single figures within a couple of years, over one billion new subs are due to be added between now and the end of 2010. Almost half of these new subs will be in Asia Pacific. Two huge Asian markets - India and China - will account for over 30% (371.6mn) of the region's total. Amongst the regions, it is the Middle East and Africa markets that will show the greatest growth. Their combined markets will more than double in size, with over 200mn new customers signing up for mobile services by 2010. As a result of the continued growth, several countries are already reporting penetration rates of over 100% and Western Europe's regional penetration is set to breach 100% in a couple of years. By 2010, the global penetration is put at 43%.

It's not all good news, though - ARPU levels are still falling. "While the industry has tended to underestimate subscriber levels, it has been over-optimistic on ARPU levels," says Mark Newman, Informa Telecoms & Media's Chief Research Officer. Operators were hoping that the introduction of 2.5G and 3G would start pushing ARPU upwards but this is not proving to be the case. The 3G operators are pricing voice services at low levels to attract new customers and this is putting downward pressure on the overall ARPU. Voice revenue per user will continue to decline as 'plain vanilla' voice applications become more commoditised.

The increasing use of enhanced services over 2.5G and 3G networks will lead to an increase in data ARPU and revenues from data services are forecast to increase by 83% between 2005 and 2010. However, this increase will not be enough to counteract the effect of falling voice revenues as the growth in the overall market declines and negative growth is forecast for total revenues in 2009 and 2010.

As expected, 3G launches began in earnest in 2004. However, Global Mobile Forecasts to 2010 does not expect a strong take-up for 3G to happen until 2008. Even by 2010, less than a third of the total subscriptions around the world will be for 3G.
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