The global broadband market is forecast to pass 190mn subscribers this year and will be approaching 440mn by the end of 2010, according to the first edition of the Future Broadband Markets report, a management report published by Informa Telecoms & Media this month. DSL technology is set to strengthen its lead over cable based subscriptions with an anticipated 77% of the worldwide broadband market in 2010, representing 332mn subscriptions versus 76mn for cable. The report anticipates that, along with Japan and South Korea, Sweden and Finland countries will top the broadband penetration tables at over 30% penetration by population. By the end of the forecast period direct fibre and other access methods will still account for well under 10% of global broadband subscribers, though after that date the report predicts that the nature of the broadband market may change fundamentally with the advent of WiMAX and other wireless broadband technologies.

The worldwide broadband market will change significantly over the next five years. While the last half decade has seen developed markets account for the lion’s share of broadband net additions, the next five years will see substantial growth in two major Asian markets, China and India, as growth in Western Europe, North America and Asia’s developed markets slow. By virtue of its high population, China will overtake the US for total broadband subscribers in 2008, and by 2010 the country will account for a quarter of all the world’s broadband subscriptions. Despite this, China’s penetration rate will still be less than 10% by population. Over the forecast period the source of revenues for operators will substantially switch from providing access to offering services over broadband and the most important of these will be TV, particularly over DSL networks.
www.telecoms.com