Ignore China and India at your peril. For too long, they have been characterised as untapped markets. Legal, political and cultural restrictions have meant, perhaps, that western companies have been unable to lever open the doors to the opportunities within to the extent that they wanted. Now, it looks too late.

It might seem as if Western and Japanese companies will chase more opportunities in these two giant countries, as regulations are gradually relaxed, but it is just as possible that the reverse will apply. Only renewed US protectionism, which is quite possible given that country’s utter paranoia with regard to China, could prevent an unstoppable force from taking its rightful place.

US observers and IBM-watchers shrugged when IBM’s PC operations were sold to Lennovo. That complacent attitude changed when other strategic assets in other sectors such as energy and consumer electronics were found in the same frame. Chinese-led bids to assume control of Unocal (by CNOOC) or Maytag (via Haier) although ultimately unsuccessful, represented the writing on the wall.

The Chinese and Indian consumer markets for telecom, particularly in the mobile field, are expanding at a dramatic rate as their economies grow and the base of consumers is broadened. Even without political constraints, both are on the verge of crossing the rubicon from being net consumers of technology to being net developers and suppliers of the same. 

Both countries have work to do on FDI policy, economic regulation and corporate governance rules. The good news is that this might take five years or more. The bad news is that it might not. In ICT terms, it's a tsunami waiting to be unleashed.

Rights, wrongs and Richter scales
Techtonix scale/short term: 4/10. Still punching below weight by population, but the tables are turning.
Techtonix scale/mid term: 8/10. Explosion of demand domestically and capability to invest elsewhere in the world.
Techtonix scale/long term:10/10. Barring economic catastrophe or a reversal in policy, the dominant force in global ICT.
Jim Chalmers

Tomorrow: Japan’s dwindling role in the global ICT market.