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Thursday, 08 September 2005 |
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Central and Eastern Europe and the
CIS offers tremendous growth potential that in too many cases is tarred
by opaque bureaucracy and the whiff of corruption...
It’s a case of ‘never never-land’ writ
large. A handful of niche specialisms in the technology sector and an
economy being built on inter-EU economic off-shoring of services and
little else do not bode well for Eastern Europe in the longer term.
In the medium term, the potential for growth in mobile services will be
sufficient to attract outside investors but the region faces stalled
economic growth ahead. The mentality instilled by decades of state
planning is deeply embedded in the mindsets of manufacturers and
operators. Corruption is rife and western investors play to that.
The result is a basket case, albeit one which rather foolish companies
from the west will stick their mitts into. Expect many of those fingers
to get burned, badly.
Rights, wrongs and Richter scales
Techtonix scale/short term: 6/10. Outside investors circle, chasing growth potential in fixed and mobile services.
Techtonix scale/mid term: 6/10. Ongoing land grab for operating assets, regional manufacturing outlets for re-export to EU.
Techtonix scale/long term: 4/10. Saturation point has been reached, albeit in record time.
Jim Chalmers
Tomorrow: is Australasia the new California? No; not unless you count the number of resident self-obsessed idiots.
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