| EU Accession: regulatory risks, market rewards |
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| Tuesday, 27 July 2004 | |
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The ten new EU accession states aren't getting cut any regulatory slack by the EC, but still their market prospects look good. On 1 May, the entry into the European Union by Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia expanded the EU's membership to 25 countries, boosted its population by 75 million to a total of around 455 million, and increased its collective GDP by an estimated US$500bn. Well before the formal act of accession, governments and regulatory bodies in the countries concerned embarked on the major task of overhauling their respective telecommunications sectors in order to achieve eventual compliance with new EU rules on electronic communications that, in theory, came into operation in July 2003. Framework for all? Given the type of the policy/regulatory journey that the new EU members had to make, so to speak, recent reports that some or all of them had so far failed to implement the new rules isn't surprising. But this non-compliance could be a cause of concern for the development of telecommunications in the CEE and the two Mediterranean countries in the immediate future, not least because the European Commission seems minded to take a hard line on adherence to the new framework. Getting tough As a commentary from Serafino Abate, research director at the UK's Ovum consultancy has observed, bridging the regulatory mindset gap between the still developing markets of the CEE and the mature markets of Western Europe is quite a tough call. However, the achievement of strict compliance with the new EU regulatory framework may not constitute the biggest challenge for CEE regulators. Abate suggests the really big deal will be the way in which the individual regulators try to realise the objectives of the framework. He believes that the details of individual interconnection and wireless regulatory determinations will be critical for the successful development of the sector. While not playing down the difficulties facing the accession states, the IDC market research company believes that their telecommunications futures are bright. In a new study IDC says that the combined Western European and CEE telecommunications markets reached a value of US$245bn in 2003, and forecast that this would reach US$281bn by 2008. While Western Europe has clearly made most of the running to date, CEE has already picked up speed. "With Central and Eastern European markets, it's important to realise that they are growing rapidly, especially with regards to mobile, as well as Internet and data services", said Jill Finger Gibson, research manager, European Telecommunications Services, IDC EMEA. "Nevertheless, most CEE countries still have a way to go, which should translate into opportunities over the next few years". "The mobile market will continue to be one of the hottest areas in Central and Eastern Europe", adds John Gole, program manager, Communications, IDC CEMA. "A number of the smaller countries have mobile penetration rates exceeding most Western European countries, making them well suited for trying out both the marketability and functionality of different mobile services before developing them further west. This is also true of fixed-line services, but to a lesser degree, as the infrastructure is not as established in the east."Obviously, disparities such as these between older EU Member States and the new entrants could create regulatory tension. Even so, the Commission must concentrate on tackling the shortcomings of long-standing members before it can turn its attention to the newcomers. John Williamson |
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