In a new survey conducted by Motorola and Trendsmedia, 45% of respondents predicted that the ability to achieve seamless mobility through interoperability among various devices and networks will be the 'tipping point' to WiMAX success. Motorola and Trendsmedia conducted the survey with attendees from 'WiMAX World' held at the end of last month. The survey also revealed that more than half of the respondents - 57% - believe that the principle reason a service provider would wait for IEEE 802.16e, instead of deploying 802.16d or proprietary solutions, is the technology's ability to support mobility as well as fixed or nomadic services.

Certainly 802.16e is the main focus of a new partnership between Motorola and (in WiMAX terms anyway) the hyperactive Intel Corporation. In this tie-up the duo aim to collaborate on specification efforts within the WiMAX Forum in an effort to make sure that network and device interoperability issues are adequately addressed. In addition, the companies plan to work together on interoperability testing of Motorola mobile devices, network equipment, and customer premises equipment with Intel products.

"WiMAX is beginning to deliver on its promise to provide broadband wireless access to businesses and consumers, and the promise of full mobility is around the corner with the anticipated ratification of the 802.16e standard", according to general manager of Intel's Broadband Wireless Division Scott Richardson. "By working with Motorola on mobile WiMAX standards and technology, we can jointly develop and test equipment to meet the requirements necessary for truly mobile broadband".

So just how big is the commercial 802.16e commercial opportunity? Motorola cites research and analyst firm Maravedis, which has hailed WiMAX as one of the fastest growing emerging sectors in the international telecommunications industry, and estimated the global market for fixed and mobile broadband solutions at up to US$1bn in 2007 and US$4bn by 2010. This last almost squares with the calculation in the October 2005 'WiMAX: Ready for Deployment' study from Alexander Resources. Here the worldwide WiMAX market is estimated to reach US$3.5bn, and account for 4% of all broadband usage, by 2010.

But the size of neither of these figures provides much in the way of succour for those individuals who reason that WiMAX has the potential to be competitive with, and bigger than, 3G (click).

Interestingly, the Motorola/Trendsmedia survey revealed that, although some confusion exists about the role the technology will play within existing infrastructures, 63% anticipate that WiMAX will serve as a complementary technology to networks such as 3G and Wi-Fi.

So too does a new report from Northern Sky Research (NSR), the comprehensively titled 'Broadband Wireless Markets - Assessing the Market Potential for WiMAX, Wi-Fi, 3G, 4G, UWB and ZigBee (2005-2010)'. "However despite the promise of WiMAX, and to a lesser extent, UWB and ZigBee, NSR still expects the Wi-Fi, 3G and eventual 4G markets to represent the largest market opportunity in terms of subscribers, hardware sales and service revenue", states NSR president Christopher Baugh. "With over 1.2bn 3G subscribers projected by 2010, it is clear that 3G will be the leading broadband wireless technology over the next 5 years in this increasingly competitive market. 3G currently has a 3-year time to market advantage over mobile WiMAX and will likely reinforce its lead with the emergence of new 3G technologies  - HSDPA/HSUPA/Rev.A/ Super 3G, and TD-CDMA".

So, on that reasoning, mobile WiMAX may be one of the boys rather than primus inter pares.
John Williamson