The impact of mobile WiMAX (802.16e) on the cellular industry is forecast to total 13mn users by 2010, a far lower number than the most ardent supporters claim as the technology faces an uphill battle to gain adoption as it confronts competitive technologies (3G) and delays to market. WiMAX mobile version (802.16e) commercial deployments are not expected until 2007 thus giving incumbent cellular operators a head start in the mobile data market with competitive technologies. Mobile operators are in the process of deploying, or have committed to deploying, HSDPA, HSUPA, and EVDO (Rev. 0 & Rev. A) in the most lucrative markets around the world. These findings and others can be found in ‘The Worldwide Cellular Infrastructure Report - 6th Edition’ from IMS. The report takes an in-depth look at the overall cellular infrastructure market and the potential impact that WiMAX is expected to have on the cellular installed base and cellular infrastructure market. Report author, Carlos Guzmán, stated that "he expects 802.16e adoption to remain low for the rest of the decade. The current economics for 802.16e do not favour mass deployments of this technology as a standalone competitor versus cellular in the near future. By the time 802.16e is ready to be deployed the only markets where it will not be facing established competitive technologies is in developing markets which are still mostly interested in voice service and basic data needs such as SMS that current cellular standards are able to satisfy these needs without the added investment to launch a brand new network that WiMAX entails. These markets have ARPUs that range of US$10-$15, making it a difficult business proposition to recoup their investments.
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