The report, 'Future Mobile Computing 2004' from the ARC Group, says that more than 72% of these revenues will come from cellular mobile (WWAN) access. Some US$34bn will be generated by notebook users accessing 3G and 2.5G WWAN services mostly using plug-in PC data cards. North America currently has the highest number of WWAN-connected notebook users - some 4.4mn by the end of 2004. Europe and Asia Pacific both have around 3mn users. However, Europe is expected to move up in 2005 and will lead WWAN-connected notebook use from 2006 onwards as 2.5G and 3G service rollouts encourage mobile operators to promote WWAN datacards and related business and consumer data services more aggressively to their subscribers. Asia Pacific was the early leader in the WWAN smartphone user market, but Europe is also expected to take the lead here by 2006 with over 35mn users, thanks to near ubiquitous WCMDA or GPRS coverage and a higher general level of disposable income.

"By contrast, North America will be the unchallenged leader in WLAN public hotspot usage via smartphones, handhelds and notebooks by 2009, with more than 61mn users, more than half of whom will be using notebooks to access services", says Freda Benlamlih, senior consultant with ARC Group and co-author of the report. Nevertheless, because smartphones and PDAs are more readily portable, they will be carried and used more regularly and will generate higher revenues per device. Asia/Pacific will have the second highest number of WLAN public hotspot users. Hotspots there will be more dispersed, generally only available in large towns and cities and popular tourist sites, and usage will likely be limited to business users, visitors and consumers able to afford the relatively expensive devices required. Future Mobile Computing forecasts that WLAN public hotspots will increase more than threefold worldwide over the next three years from 34,700 in 2003 to 134,700 in 2006.

Mobile network operators are already defining strategies to allow their subscribers access to WLAN, and hybrid WLAN/WWAN datacards and device solutions are being launched to cater for dualmode access. Equally, wireless internet service providers (WISPs) and wireline operators are looking to provide WLAN access to their services. WISP aggregators, hotspot builders and roaming service providers are increasing hotspot availability and facilitating access to multiple sites to address key issues of roaming and interoperability as the market takes its first tentative steps towards high mobility, heterogeneous 4G networks.
Ian Channing