According to a number of expert analyses, SMS traffic should now be levelling out in many markets, the victim in part of the popularity of its younger, more sexy siblings the multimedia messaging service (MMS) and wireless instant messaging (IM). While it's certainly possible to find data that supports the idea that text messaging is slowing down in some locations, it's equally possible to find data that contradicts this proposition. In the UK, for example, based on figures for the first seven months of 2004 totalling 15bn text messages, the Mobile Data Association (MDA) has now revised its forecast for the year up from 23bn to 25bn. This compares to a total of 20.5bn messages sent in 2003.

Other than the slower-than-anticipated burn for MMS and IM, the increasing popularity of SMS texting seems to have three main components.

One is the commercialisation of new applications. Recent examples here include an Italian SMS healthcare information service offered by the Health Telematic Network and Telecom Italia Mobile, and Telefónica Móviles España's SMS-based customer relationship management (CRM) service linking customers via text to the operator's helpdesks (this last begs the question: what if the customer query is about non-functioning SMS?). A number of enterprising individuals are now also producing SMS-based novels.

More to come
For the future, more mileage out of SMS looks likely to result from additional use of enterprise applications. According to Jeff Wilson, ceo of text and voice messaging specialists Telsis, less than half of business managers currently regard text as a suitable communications medium for work. Telsis says the reason is that legacy network infrastructure means text messaging is unreliable and cannot provide the core management functions that are taken for granted with voice communication and e-mail. The company reckons it has cracked this particular nut with its Text For Business solution. Based on the Telsis SMS router this supports applications such as divert, copy, log and virtual private network (VPN) texting. The router platform has already been deployed by several European mobile operators, including Vodafone UK, Vodafone Greece, T-Mobile Netherlands and Jersey Telecom.

A second factor in the continuing growth of SMS traffic overall is the circumstance that some geographic SMS markets aren't yet that well developed. China, for one, is seen to have massive potential. The Xinhua news agency cites statistics from China's Ministry of Information that forecast the number of SMS texts doubling this year to reach 550bn, and continuing on to hit a staggering 1.4tn short messages in 2006.

A third relevant dynamic is the expansion of the SMS user community outside of its original youth market demographic. "There is no age barrier in texting any more", asserts MDA Chairman, Mike Short.

Small wonder, perhaps, that the recent 'Cellular Data Forecast model (2004 - 2009)' of Strategy Analytics' 'Wireless Internet Applications (WIA) Service' had '…lowly text messaging via SMS…' remaining the dominant global application, and generating 26% of the US$189bn wireless data service revenues forecast for 2009.
John Williamson