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R-100 Index Past Results & Analysis Redux Global ICT 100 Index: August angst?
R-100 Index Past Results & Analysis Redux Global ICT 100 Index: August angst? 
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| Redux Global ICT 100 Index: August angst? |
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| Friday, 03 September 2004 | |
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02 September, 2004: Summertime, and the index is easy: a fall of less than one percent worldwide, with significant gainers along the way in specific sectors. This looks good – as the industry stores up equity ahead of the long winter to come… Passing its second monthly milepost, the Redux Global ICT 100 Index (R-100) has slipped back a tick, landing at 929.04 on 27 August compared to 938.68 on 27 July and 1000 when the Index made its debut on 02 July, 2004. The August (27/07-27/08) decline is just 1%. The corresponding fall to the end of July was more than 6%. It would be too easy to attribute this slight decline to a general lethargy in the market during summer heatwaves and holidays. On the contrary, some bourse brigades are moving ahead and some are falling back, even if no single trend is discernible. Swingometers Thus Belgacom has risen by nearly 10% in the month, while Telekom Austria (a remarkably similar mid-cap telco, big in its own backyard but used to floss teeth and line dog baskets elsewhere) has slipped by 10%. More notable are the traditional Scandinavian or Nordic telcos – Telenor, TDC, TeliaSonera – all of which have risen in value to a significant degree. Another stand-out performance appears linked to the successful flotation of Google: EBay, Amazon.com and Apple are gainers, while 'smokestack' Internet stocks – such as Intel, Microsoft and Cisco – are in decline. Google itself will make its entry into the Redux Global ICT 100 Index next month, when the Index is recallibrated. Wireless gainers worldwide include Qualcomm, Vodafone, DoCoMo and Telefónica Moviles. With lead positions in most of the markets in which they are active, this is a powerful quartet worth watching. China Mobile, with legitimate claims to join this group, remains static but when you start adding up the subscriber numbers these are five going mad in wireless paradise. Looked at regionally, performance of the Index was flat. European stocks were down by 0.04% – the equivalent now of 29.5% of the R-100. The North American component of the Index dropped by 1.6% to account for 54.1% of the total. Asia-Oceania, at 16.4%, moved little – although within the region there was plenty of 'what goes up, most go down…', ensuring winners and losers to watch. Chop and change The composition of the Redux Global ICT 100 Index (R-100) offers infinite possibilities to compare and contrast the performance of global ICT giants. Here are the performances of the Top 15 (by market capitalisation) in the two months to 27 August, 2004: Microsoft: -3.9% Intel: -16% Cisco: -15% IBM: -3.4% Verizon: +7% DoCoMo: +7% Dell: eq NTT: -18% Vodafone: +8% SBC: +6.6% Deutsche Telekom: +0.8% Nokia: -17% France Telecom: -3% Siemens: -0.16% Hewlett-Packard: +1% At the end of June 2004, these 15 firms represented $1,682bn in equity – almost half the R-100 total for 100 worldwide companies. Rune-readers may note that these big hitters are feeling pain, yet the Index as a whole is holding firm. Discuss and deduce how smaller companies are maintaining the R-100's stability. For the latest list of R-100 companies click here. Further analysis will appear here in due course. Jim Chalmers |
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