2006 is the year that the mobile TV picture starts to become clearer, according to a report released today by Informa Telecoms & Media. The study, entitled ‘Mobile TV: Broadcast and Mobile Multimedia’, predicts 210mn subscribers by 2011: in that year 10% of all mobile handsets sold will have a broadcast receiver. The soccer World Cup has provided the spark for the launch of a number of broadcast services in Europe, led by 3 in Italy and Debitel in Germany, and Informa Telecoms & Media anticipates that US$300mn of revenue will come from users accessing streaming and broadcast services over the World Cup. A significant number of technical and business issues have had to be resolved in order for mobile TV to reach a viable platform from which to launch. Technical standards for mobile TV have been emerging, and the next five years will see a proliferation of devices operating on different mobile TV technical standards including DVB-H, MediaFlo and T-DMB.

By 2011, Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that DVB-H handsets will form the bulk of all broadcast receiver handset sales (63%), equating to 73mn units, followed by MediaFLO devices with sales expected to reach 14.5mn. Since the first broadcast mobile devices were launched in early 2005 by Samsung and LG for the Korean market, the size and form factor of the new crop of devices for 2006 has improved immeasurably. Many of the newer models have swivel screens to  allow for widescreen viewing, and each handset invariably incorporates a high resolution, high colour, anti-glare screen. Sound quality is of high importance in the device, with stereo speakers added to most, as it is this characteristic which is  perceived as the yardstick of the overall TV experience  irrespective of picture quality. Battery life issues have largely been resolved; current generation devices can sustain 3-4 hours continuous playback against a typical user profile of 3 hours use per week, based on trial information.

Mobile TV engages a significant number of stakeholders: mobile operators, content providers, broadcasters and handset providers, and the models for revenue split are still forming as relationships between mobile operators and content providers develop. Users are unlikely to pay for premium operator branded TV content in the way that they do for more conventional mobile content. As with mobile music and gaming, Informa Telecoms & Media predicts the final revenue splits will be in favour of the content providers, as users will not pay for mobile TV without the guarantee of familiar, compelling content. Mobile TV will be adopted at different rates in different regions as the necessary broadcast infrastructure is put in  place and as handsets begin to proliferate. Asia-Pacific will lead the way with 95.1mn anticipated subscribers by 2011, as innovative services from Korean operators continue to gain traction in that market and China and Japan follow suit. Europe, with its relatively advanced infrastructure will see 68.7mn subscribers by 2011, with spikes as operators  launch services to coincide with the 2006 Fifa World Cup and again in 2009 when a more complete infrastructure base is likely to be achieved. Middle East and Africa will follow with 9.5mn subscribers in 2011 and The Americas with 9.1mn.
www.informatelecoms.com