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We love Cisco; but not as much as
Cisco loves Cisco. And certainly not as much as Cisco loves turning
other companies into new little bits of Cisco.
If you poll enterprise users about
which company leads the way in a variety of hard-core ICT disciplines –
IP, the Internet, etc – I can guarantee you will get one overwhelming
answer. Cisco.
So when Cisco announces above-expectation results, we all swoon. Happy days are here again.
So much for the nonsense. It can be argued that Cisco helped to
precipitate the collapse of the technology sector when almost
single-handedly inventing the term 'excess inventory'. In other words,
it produced far more of its boxes than anyone was minded to buy.
It also subscribed in subsequent quarters to the 'lack of visibility'
concept, which loosely translated was taken to mean that it had not the
foggiest idea what was going to happen next. For a company whose name
derives from San Francisco, the foggy bit might be appropriate.
Cisco is also a madly evangelical company, not in any formal religious
sense but in the respect that its officers and employees are in some
way 'chosen'. For some pretty obvious reasons, we won't be going any
further into that right here, but some nifty search engine action will
take you there.
Stop the world
Cisco Tuesday announced some impressive results. I think.
“Order growth was very strong with product book to bill comfortably
above one. The key takeaway here is that when you see our ending
backlog for fiscal 2006 as published in our Form 10-K in September, we
will have increased our Cisco standalone product backlog approximately
$700M over the ending backlog of fiscal 2005. This increase was due
almost entirely to the strong order growth in Q3 and Q4”, said
president and CEO, John Chambers.
My inventory sensors are twitching anew.
But there is more from the big man: “From a Cisco standalone geographic
perspective, momentum was strong from an orders perspective and balance
was very good across the five theaters during Q4. Four of the five
geographic theaters experienced stronger annual product order growth
when compared to a strong Q4 of last fiscal year, Europe being the
exception. In Europe we did see some improvement versus earlier in the
fiscal year, with order growth slightly improving to the high single
digits.”
The markets went wild at this news. Cisco stock opened up nearly 10%
this morning, which cannot quite obscure the fact that it's off about
25% on its YTD high. All is relative. Market-watchers hope that Cisco
will drag an otherwise sluggish tech sector upwards. It might do,
having spent much of this year dragging tech stocks in the opposite
direction.
Cynicism aside, Cisco is back: an IP-based colossus once more standing
astride the Golden Gate. “From a Cisco standalone product perspective
the balance was extremely good across routing, switching, and advanced
technologies”, said Chambers, as if to prove the point.
Loaves, fishes
Part of the Cisco myth lies in its ability to take ordinary tasks (and
the often ordinary people behind them) and take them to a higher,
IP-based place. In healthcare, for instance.
"It sounded like a good idea for addressing a problem that has been
daunting us for many years, so I was interested in participating in the
trial", said Nancy Steiger, chief executive officer for the San Mateo
Medical Center. "But I underestimated the impact of the technology. In
my career this is one of the single best steps we have taken to
improving the quality of our patient services."
Cisco adds: “a small group of California hospitals is tapping Internet
technologies to address one of the most daunting challenges faced by
the healthcare industry in the United States.”
Less daunting (now designated as a verb, it seems), maybe, is the
challenge laid out in the 'Executive Thought Leadership' strand of
Cisco's publicity. Robert Lloyd, senior VP of US and Canada Operations,
cites an example where “a home-improvement company broadcasts “how-to”
demonstrations of building projects, which can be recorded on set-top
boxes. Using the education he receives, a customer configures a porch
or deck virtually on the home store’s Website. The Website generates a
parts list and recommends equipment needed to complete the job. The
customer gathers all the components in one trip, rather than repeatedly
visiting a local retailer each time he discovers he needs another
item.” Please note, Robert, in Europe 'she' might do it (and 'she'
certainly would in my house or else nobody would).
You can't knock Cisco for this: they are doing their best. Spreading
the love and taking IP networks into new and undiscovered corners of
the universe.
Wine, water
But what's this? It's time to update the infamous Cisco 'If you can't beat them, buy them' list. They have not let us down.
Newcomers to this feature will need to click here to get the running
total up to the end of 2004. But Cisco has not been sluggish in the 30
months since then!
Here we go in reverse chronological order: Meetinghouse Data
Communications (July 2006); Metreos Corporation (June 2006); Audium
Corporation (June 2006); SyPixx Networks, Inc. (March 2006);
Intellishield Alert Manager (November 2005); Scientific-Atlanta, Inc.
(November 2005); Nemo Systems (September 2005); Sheer Networks, Inc.
(July 2005); KiSS Technology A/S (June 2005); M.I. Secure Corporation
(June 2005); FineGround Networks, Inc. (May 2005); Vihana, Inc. (May
2005); Sipura Technology, Inc. (April 2005); Topspin Communications,
Inc. (April 2005); Airespace, Inc. (January 2005).
If you have not clicked on the link above for the dozen or so years to
end-2004, here's a refresher; in chronological order, the 1993-2004
acquisitions by the kindly folk at Cisco included: Crescendo, Newport
Systems Solutions, Kalpana, Lightstream, Combinet, Internet Junction,
Grand Junction, Network Translation, TGV Software, Stratacom, MICA
Technologies, Nashoba Networks (remember them?), Granite Systems,
Netsys Technologies, Metaplex, Telestone, Skystone Systems, Global
Internet Software Group, Ardent, Dagaz, Lightspeed International,
Wheelgroup Corp, Netspeed, Precept Software, CLASS Data Systems, Summa
Four, American Internet Corp, Clarity Wireless Corp, Selsius Systems,
Pipelinks, Sentient Networks, Fibex Systems, Geotel Communications,
Amteva Technologies, TransMedia Communications, Stratum One, Calista,
MaxComm Technologies, Cerent, Monterey Networks, CoCom AS, WebLine
Communications, Tasmania Network Systems, Aironet Wireless
Comunications, V-Bits, Worldwide Data Systems, Internet Engineering
Group, Pirelli Optical Systems, Altiga Networks, Compatible Systems,
Growth Networks, Atlantech Technologies, InfoGear Technology, JetCell,
SightPath, Pentacom, Seagull Semiconductor, Arrowpoint Communications,
Qeyton Systems, HyNex, Netiverse, Komodo Technology, NuSpeed Internet
Systems, IP Mobile, PixStream, Vovida Networks, IPCell Technologies,
CAIDS Software Solutions, Active Voice, Radiata, Exio, AuroraNetics,
Allegro Systems, Hammerhead Networks, Navarro Networks, AYR Network,
Andiamo Systems, Psionic Software, Okena, SignalWorks, Linksys Group,
Latitude Communications, Twingo Systems, Riverhead Networks, Procket
Network, Actona Technologies, Parc Technologies, P-Cube, NetSolve,
dynamicsoft, Perfigo, Jahi Network, BCN Systems.
Fishers of men
When you think about it, Cisco is only 'spreading the love' with this
incessant trail of acquisitions. Think of all the millionaires created
by this largesse. Then stare at Cisco's market cap and ask yourself
where the value went. Or ask its shareholders how many of them are
millionaires.
And remember the keywords: 'inventory' and 'visibility'.
Jim Chalmers
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