A new study from In-Stat – ‘In-Depth Analysis: FMC in China: A Long Way to Go’ – concludes that performance of the Chinese fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) market will initially be of the sotto voce variety, and then experience swift growth after the commencement of 3G services between 2008 and 2010. In-Stat reckons that in 2005 there were about 400,000 consumer FMC subscribers (although one wonders what definition of FMC applies here), and that numbers would increase to 11.4mn in 2010.

“From 2005 to 2008, convergence in China will mainly happen in the narrowband voice field,” opines Kevin Li, In-Stat analyst. “From 2008 to 2010, converged broadband voice and data will dominate the FMC market. After 2010, convergence of multimedia content will emerge.”

Takeaways from In-Stat also include: for the Chinese business market, FMC subscriber totals will increase from 0.4mn in 2005 to 5.6mn in 2010; and FMC not only means the convergence of services and networks, but it also the restructuring of management departments. In-Stat reckons the four Chinese carriers agree that conflicts between departments will be a big obstacle in the development of FMC.

In-Stat’s linkage of FMC and 3G in China mirrors that of an earlier reading of the runes by Chinese research firm Analysys International (click).
John Williamson