China’s mobile market is a hand-over-fist phenomenon in terms of growth. The endless dawdling over 3G has not deflected the likes of China Mobile from incredible levels of growth. As a constituent of the Redux Global ICT 100, its market cap was around US$75bn in July 2005. At the beginning of December 2006 it was just shy of US$170bn. Crikey.

Even while the revenue involved is directed to building the world’s most enormous cellular network, China Mobile is apparently looking to flex its muscles in other countries. At the same time, overseas carriers are seeking to buy into Chinese operators:predators like Telefónica and Vodafone flirt with miniscule stakes in Mobile, Netcom and Telecom almost as if to prove that they can.

These are exercises in tokenism that flatter China’s market leaders (hey peeps, let’s have another banquet in TGHOTP!) without threatening them or promising, for instance, to get 3G underway. Just as superfluous are early suggestions that China’s fixed and wireless telcos will invest in Hong Kong-based ventures like Hutchison.

China’s telco engines, led by China Mobile are incredibly robust. They will continue to mop up domestic market share and puzzle over the route to 3G: and then they will be unleashed upon the world. And then the thing which I am not allowed to write about (starts with sh…) will hit the fan.
Jim Chalmers