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Wednesday, 04 July 2007 |
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Broadband wireless to score in backhaul says report. And could beat out LTE says another…
WTRS’s new ‘WiMAX Emerging Technology Summer 2007 Report’ contends that WiMAX is currently going great guns in three specific areas of application. First, according to WTRS, WiMAX offers real competition to T1/E1 in broadband backhaul systems. Second, WiMAX enables third world emerging players and markets to leapfrog copper landline telecommunications infrastructure. And, finally, WiMAX is a growing alternative to incumbent broadband services such as DSL, cable modem, fibre and others.
“We are seeing strong adoption of WiMAX in specific markets,” ventures WTRS principal analyst Kirsten West. “From a technology perspective, we predict 802.16e will rapidly supplant 802.16d in the marketplace due to its ability to provide mobility services in addition to the level of service enabled by fixed WiMAX.”
Some other conclusions from this report include:
· although (apparently) not much discussed, development of WiMAX in Africa is progressing in countries as distinct as Congo, Ethiopia and South Africa, while other major markets are India (ahead of Africa so far) and China, with western providers continuing to play major roles
· WiMAX market entry is greatly influenced by the global availability of spectrum
· cellular service providers are predominantly interested in 802.16e mobile WiMAX
· fixed WiMAX will have hurdles to cross in entering the
US
market
· the four geographic areas with greatest potential for WiMAX success are
Japan
, Asia, Africa, and
Canada
And another new analysis, Rethink Research's ‘The Road to 4G: operator deployment plans and vendor prospects 2007-2012’, considers mobile WiMAX in the context of pre-4G wireless systems. This report speculates that CapEx on such systems could reach a cumulative total of US$13bn by 2012 if new spectrum allocations, and technology roll-outs, stay on schedule. According to Rethink Research the main systems attracting this global spend will be 802.16e, its successor 802.16m, and 3G’s Long Term Evolution (LTE). While the last is forecast to see a strong uptick in growth from the turn of the decade, it will not overtake WiMAX in CapEx terms until 2014.
Rethink Research does add the rider, though, that if either or both technologies experience severe delays to their development and certification processes, and especially if new spectrum fails to materialise as quickly as promised in both mature and emerging economies, the level of spending could be reduced by as much as US$3bn cumulatively between 2007 and 2012. A similar scale of upside is possible if global regulators act quickly and reform their processes earlier than currently seems likely, and if other systems such as Ultra Mobile Broadband and China FuTURE Network also come quickly to market.
John Williamson |
