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And the broadband played on |
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Wednesday, 08 August 2007 |
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Worldwide subscriptions to pass 536 million by 2011…
Worldwide broadband subscriptions will exceed 536mn by 2011, with DSL representing over half of the market. Fibre (FTTx) and WiMAX will be among the fastest growing access technologies in the next five years, according to a report released by Strategy Analytics and entitled, logically enough, ‘Worldwide Broadband Subscription Forecasts, 2007-2011’.
“Ambitious fibre rollouts in the
US
by Verizon and AT&T, and in
Europe
by French operator Free, will bring overall FTT(x) subscriptions to 64mn by 2011,” judges Ben Piper, director of the Strategy Analytics Broadband Network Strategies Service.
Strategy Analytics calculates that broadband service revenues will surpass US$150bn in 2011, with Europe, Asia Pacific and
North America
leading the way. This represents a 13% CAGR (2007 to 2011). Broadband ARPUs will remain stable on a worldwide level.
“Service providers cannot afford to stand still with current access technologies,” according to David Mercer, vp of the Strategy Analytics Digital Consumer Practice. “Fibre-to-the-home will eventually provide the ultimate broadband experience for many users, including high definition TV and lightning-fast interactive web-based services.”
But not all industry rune readers are that enamoured of FTTx or FTTH. Arguing that operators that can justify the high cost of fibre are the exception not the rule, the iSuppli research company makes a strong case for VDSL in a new pronouncement. “In light of these high costs, the telcos would like to milk their existing copper plants to the maximum extent for the longest possible time,” reckons Steve Rago, principal analyst for networking and optical communications with iSuppli. “The telcos’ investment in these plants has been extensive over the years, with 1.3bn copper subscriber lines in use today.”
iSuppli expects VDSL to be a mainstream access technology for the next 10 years at least. The company acknowledges that perhaps, over the next 25 years, it will be replaced by FTTH but for now, it says, VDSL should continue to generate healthy sales growth for both OEMs and silicon suppliers.
John Williamson |
