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Monday, 17 September 2007 |
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Nearly 95 million UMDs to ship in 2012. Or maybe not…
A new class of aways-on Internet-connected products, collectively termed Ultra-Mobile Devices (UMDs), will become popular over the next five years, according to ‘
Mobile Internet Devices and UMPCs’, a new report from ABI Research. By appealing to a wide range of buyers they will reach shipments of nearly 95mn units by 2012, and should prove extremely profitable for their makers believes ABI.
“UMDs are a very exciting, potentially very lucrative area,” judges ABI Research vice president Stan Schatt. “What makes this market so intriguing is that products will assume so many different forms. That product differentiation will be an integral part of the ultra mobile device marketing plan.”
According to ABI UMDs are of two types - Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPCs), which run Windows and business applications and are aimed at business users, and Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs), which target consumers and are more likely to run a Linux operating system. The latter, with their lower prices and wider appeal, will make up by far the majority of the devices shipped. Apple’s iPhone and Nokia’s N800 may be seen as precursors of the MID. Both UMPCs and MIDs will feature multiple wireless connectivity technologies – Wi-Fi, WiMAX, and cellular – to maintain ‘any time, anywhere’ Internet connectivity.
This diversity is also reflected in the range of applications that will be offered: Web browsing, music, navigation, voice, and data communications including e-mail and IM, photo/video, and vertical commercial applications will all be popular. Some new applications, such as medical monitoring, are now in development as well.
The suggestion that UMDs will take a variety of forms is echoed by recent research from In-Stat. The UMD market, initially defined by the ultra mobile PC, is evolving to become a family of devices, concludes the In-Stat analysis ‘Ultra-Mobile Devices (UMD, UMPC, MID, Micro PC): A New Worldwide Paradigm for
Mobile User Applications’. However In-Stat’s reading of the UMD market runes produces what looks to be a much more modest sales opportunity, with a worldwide forecast for only 8mn-plus units in 2011. It may be, though, that In-Stat defines a UMD in a different way to ABI. In-Stat says that three key features differentiate UMDs from products like PDAs and Smartphones. First, UMDs must run a full operating system. Second, they must run any application as originally developed and compiled for PCs or notebooks. Third, UMDs must run full Web pages unmodified (including flash and java applets) to provide complete Internet experiences.
“The new paradigm also requires specific market inflection points in the mass availability of anytime/anywhere wireless communications, as well as new business models for application programs for widespread adoption,” offers Ian Lao, In-Stat analyst. “Many of these requirements are already in the late stages of development or roll-out.”
John Williamson |
