Maravedis runs rule over the broadband technology as Pyramid concludes Sprint onto a good thing. Or not… 

BWA/WiMAX research and analysis firm Maravedis Inc reckons that the global WiMAX subscriber base increased by 50% in Q3 2007, reaching a total of 1,369,000 subscribers generating revenue of US$668mn for the first three quarters of this year. These estimates are contained in the second issue of the company’s ‘WiMAXCounts Quarterly Report’, a complement to Maravedis’ ‘WiMAXCounts Operator Tracking Service’ launched in May 2007.

“We expect the introduction of major network deployments for mobile WiMAX, combined with lower CPE pricing, to accelerate subscriber growth in 2008 and contribute to a 70% to 80% yearly increase in commercial deployment,” ventures Maravedis ceo and founder Adlane Fellah. “Many operators have slowed down their network expansion plans to synchronise their commercial deployment with WiMAX 802.16e equipment certification beginning next year. Mobile WiMAX will enable them to offer more flexibility and value-added service.”

Some 196 operators were analysed in this ‘WiMAXCounts Quarterly Report’. Other findings were:
·         about 535,000 subscribers were using WiMAX Forum Certified technology as of Q3 2007
·         the average number of subscribers per operator was 11,987 for Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) and 5,801 for Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) in Q3 2007
·         WiMAX service revenues will total close to US$1bn in 2007, with recorded Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of US$45.08 for residential and US$144.27 for business subscribers
·         the gap in subscriber type continued to increase in the second half of 2007, reaching 64% residential and 36% business
·         out of all CPEs deployed, 29% were using 802.16-2004, 11.7% were using 802.16-2005, 55% still using proprietary technologies, and 3.8% remained undisclosed
·         66% of operators are deploying WiMAX networks and services in the 3.3 to 3.8 GHz frequency band
·         the Middle East and Africa region has the highest residential ARPU at US$52.31, while offering significantly lower speeds than other regions

Another analyst house running the rule over WiMAX, and in particular the prospects of success for mobile WiMAX cheerleader Sprint, is Pyramid Research. In that company’s upcoming report ‘WiMAX Business Models: Will New Networks Ever Become Profitable?’ it is noted that speculation over a spin-off of the Sprint WiMAX unit has been rampant, and that while Sprint has pushed its WiMAX initiative as a key driver for its next cycle of growth, shareholders may not want to wait for WiMAX to come into its own. “We analysed the financial implications of such an undertaking, and we conclude that Sprint's WiMAX business won't deliver positive EBITDA margin until 2011, with free cash flow remaining in the red through 2012,” writes Pyramid research manager Ozgur Aytar. “For a company performing well otherwise, this may be a risk worth taking. In Sprint's case, a quicker fix may be necessary.”
John Williamson