Friday, 03 September 2010
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| Femto’s hell? Not quite |
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| Monday, 23 March 2009 | |
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Recession slows miniature base station deployments, but only temporarily…
According to ‘Femtocells: Consumer, Enterprise and Metro Markets’, a new study from ABI Research, although the global recession is one of the factors that has put a brake on expected large scale femtocell deployments, that slowdown will only be temporary. ABI’s senior analyst Aditya Kaul has revised 2009 estimates project shipments to slightly less than a million. “Femtocell rollouts to date have been limited, controlled ones,” he says. “But ABI Research expects that 2010 will see shipments climbing well above a million units.” ABI’s reasoning? “The signs are there that vendors are gearing up for a big push,” offers Kaul. “For example picoChip, one of the industry’s main silicon suppliers, recently announced a multi-million dollar injection of funding, probably geared towards a ramp-up. There is a lot of similar activity behind the scenes, and new partnerships which point to preparation for a major market expansion.” ABI points out that femtocell investment can be done in stages with fairly low entry points, making it easier to justify in a tight financial market. But the analyst anticipates an announcement, in late 2009 or early 2010, of a multi-city commercial femtocell deployment by one of the major mobile operators. That, reasons Kaul, may encourage other operators to follow suit. ABI does concede, however, that there are near-term challenges facing vendors and operators alike. Price is one: ABI Research believes that although femtocell business models could be enabled at various price points, the psychological barrier of a US$100 femtocell cannot be overlooked. The company reckons low cost femtocells are essential to bridge the gap between niche market and mass-market deployments. Also, until now, large-scale deployments have only been simulated in computer models: real-world rollouts could pose challenges. “These challenges are all valid, but none of them are show-stoppers – there’s no ‘elephant in the room’ that will pose a major obstacle to large-scale deployment,” concludes Kaul. FMC good to go, too If anything Infonetics Research is even more upbeat about the commercial prospects for the femtocell and its cousin, dual mode fixed-mobile convergence (FMC). In the first edition of Infonetics’ biannual ‘FMC and Femtocell Equipment, Phones, and Subscribers’ report, it’s argued that the economic downturn is actually good for sales of equipment that facilitates these two forms of convergence. “We expect the FMC and femtocell equipment markets to thrive during the current economic downturn for a number of reasons. First, Orange and T-Mobile, and Rogers Wireless now as well, are driving the UMA market and do not plan to slow down their deployments; in fact, they see the slowdown as an opportunity to lure more FMC subscribers,” explains Stéphane Téral, principal analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure at Infonetics Research. “Second, after a long period of hesitation and trials, Tier 1 and 2 mobile operators are poised to invest heavily in femtocells, which they see as an alternate network to offload their RAN as well as a means of positioning the mobile device at the heart of broadband home networking. As a result, security gateway sales are picking up, and will continue growing rapidly, driven by massive 3G femtocell deployments.” Other findings of the Infonetics report include: · worldwide UMA network controller (UNC) revenue is forecast to grow at a 44% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2008 to 2013 John Williamson |
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