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Thursday, 02 July 2009
Surveys predict bright future for netbooks… 

Two new analyses suggest the netbook market is cooking, with gas.

According to  Semico Research of the USA the netbook sector has seen “…amazing growth during the past year and is poised to see even greater growth over the next five years.” Semico expects a five-year CAGR in excess of 30% as netbooks grow to 60mn units by 2013.

The company, publisher of the ‘Netbooks – Harder, Better, Faster, Smaller’ report, says it’s rare to see a product with such a niche target market grow so large so quickly. Semico adds that the notebook industry is having to adjust to netbooks just as desktops had to adjust when notebooks were introduced. Reportedly Semico is predicting that Intel’s hegemony in netbook processors – currently estimated at 90% - is set to be challenged by the likes of VIA, Qualcomm , Texas Instruments and Freescale.

Looking at just the EMEA scene, Canalys estimates that while 14.5mn portable PCs shipped in the region during Q1 2009, a 23% decline on Q4 2008, netbooks continued to make their presence felt, with 2.4mn units shipped, accounting for 16% of the total portable PC shipments and up from 14% the previous quarter.

Canalys reckons that a combination of portability and low price points has seen the netbook gain significant traction in consumer markets, rapidly becoming an established product category. Many vendors lacked a netbook in their portfolio until Q4 2008, concerned that these new low-margin products could cannibalise existing notebook sales. The research house notes that the success of the netbook has also gotten the attention of other industry players including Google, one of the driving forces behind the Open Handset Alliance's Android platform.

Canalys reports that the OS of choice for the netbook is currently Windows XP, but that Google will be hoping that Android can establish itself as an alternative when devices come to market in the second half of 2009. Canalys figures that the upcoming transition to Windows 7 will provide an opportunity for Android, and other Linux distributions, to challenge Microsoft's dominance in this space.

“The netbook has brought with it an opportunity in the form of a new route to market: the mobile operators, which are applying upfront subsidies to these devices to drive mobile broadband adoption. Operators are increasingly adding notebooks to their device portfolios, thereby increasing consumer choice,” adds a Canalys brief. “While most offers have been focused on consumers to date, potential volume sales to SMBs and other enterprises also cannot be ignored. In the current economic climate, the ability to lower upfront costs and provide what are essentially interest-free financing deals to consumers will help drive sales of both netbooks and notebooks.”
John Williamson 
 
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