Despite the current global economic downturn, the number of household broadband connections continues to grow robustly, according to Gartner Inc. And in the Gartner’s analysis ‘Next Phase of Growth in Worldwide Consumer Fixed Broadband’, it’s suggested that one in five households worldwide will have a fixed broadband connection in the home by the end of 2009. It’s not all broadband beer and skittles, though, as other Gartner research predicts that ultra-high-speed residential broadband will create a bandwidth divide that will emerge in the next three to five years. Here urbanised areas will benefit from increased download speeds while rural and less-populated areas will not.

On the upside, Gartner reckons a total of 422mn households will have a fixed broadband connection in the home in 2009, up from 382mn households in 2008, and the market will steadily grow with nearly 580mn households having a fixed broadband connection by 2013.

“Consumers may be watching their household expenditure, but dropping their broadband connections is not on the top of their agendas as a way to reduce outgoings,” comments Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Multiple motivations are conspiring to keep broadband growth strong, such as PCs being more affordable, migration from dial-up, affordably priced broadband subscriptions, aging populations requiring broadband connectivity, and even as a result of an economic boost from country-specific economic and broadband-specific stimulus plans.”

At the end of 2008, approximately 21 countries had broadband connections in at least 50% (see Table 1). In many countries, the rates are much higher; the highest penetration being in South Korea at 86% and the lowest being Indonesia at less than 1%.

Table 1
Broadband Household Penetration by Market (Percent)
 

Country	2008		2013
South Korea	86	South Korea	93
Netherlands	80	Netherlands	88
Denmark	75	Canada	81
Hong Kong	72	Hong Kong	80
Canada	69	Singapore	78
Switzerland	69	Denmark	78
Norway	67	United States	78
New Zealand	65	New Zealand	75
France	63	Japan	73
Singapore	63	Taiwan	72
United Kingdom	63	Norway	72
Finland	62	United Kingdom	71
Taiwan	61	Switzerland	70
United States	60	Australia	69
Belgium	58	Germany	66
Japan	57	France	65
Spain	56	Belgium	63
Germany	55	Ireland	63
Australia	55	Spain	62
Sweden	54	Finland	59
Ireland	54	Austria	54
Austria	48	Sweden	54

Gartner believes that although many mature markets will see a slowing down of broadband rates as connectivity reaches saturation, many emerging markets are still in the early stages of broadband deployment and will see rapid growth in adoption rates. Gartner predicts that over the next five years, the emerging markets ( China , India , Indonesia , Malaysia , the Philippines , Thailand , Latin American countries, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa ) will collectively provide twice as many new consumer broadband connections as mature markets: 135mn vs. 62mn connections, respectively.

However, despite the significant growth in connections in emerging markets, Gartner analysts said that households in emerging markets will continue to outnumber those in mature markets by 4-to-1. Consequently, it is unlikely that broadband household penetration in the emerging markets will catch up with mature markets within the next 10 years, and Gartner estimates that the digital divide will remain in the 50% to 54% range for the foreseeable future.

Divided we stand?
But a digital divide may not be just apparent between the mature and the emerging markets. In its analysis ‘Emerging Technology Analysis: Ultra-High-Speed Residential Broadband Internet, Global Consumer Services’, Gartner argues that ultra-high-speed residential broadband - defined as a broadband service supporting download speeds of 50Mbits/s and above – will open up a rift between rural and urban communities within particular countries.

“Ultra broadband will exacerbate the digital divide among different world regions, as well as within countries,” said Fernando Elizalde, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Governments in countries that lag behind in the deployment of ultra broadband will come under increasing pressure to use public funds to upgrade broadband infrastructure to avoid falling behind.”
John Williamson